Here's a helpful chart showing a breakdown of the top exchanges & their underlying assets:pic.twitter.com/i3PBwxQCwj
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Here's a helpful chart showing a breakdown of the top exchanges & their underlying assets:pic.twitter.com/i3PBwxQCwj
ICE is interesting with its breadth of products. I read that CEO Jeffrey Sprecher once bid for Ebay. What do you make of him and his acquisition strategy?
Sprecher is arguably the industry's most successful deal maker. He turned a small power exchange into a global behemoth largely via M&A, whether it be futures, the NYSE, market data or mortgages. His deals have fit into two buckets: analog-to-digital conversion & platforms.
The Ebay rumor fits into the idea of an exchange's "platform" - once the core infrastructure is built, adding new things to the platform is easier & comes w/synergies. Ebay is a marketplace platform just like ICE, which is where the idea of a combination might've come from.
The most recent example of an "analog-to-digital" acquisition strategy was Ellie Mae. ICE argues the mortgage origination process is outdated & inefficient, and there's money to be made in converting it into an electronic business.
@MarcRuby did a great writeup on ICE's history a few months back for those interested:https://www.netinterest.co/p/plumbing-the-worlds-markets-the-story …
Awesome, I look forward to reading. There's a perception that exchanges can serve as inflation hedges. How do you think about that?
In my mind, exchanges have a lot of pricing power & largely fixed costs, making them a perfect inflation play. Many exchanges also have interest rate businesses which see higher trading volumes if rates rise. Others have talked about this on FinTwit as well (@HorizonKinetics)
One thing to keep in mind is the impact of inflation on the market data side of the industry. Data businesses gain a premium now in a ZIRP low growth environment, but I don't think they'll be as loved when they're consistently growing +4-5% in a world with 4% inflation.
Got it. Is there a company that you feel is really misunderstood by the market?
This has to be Virtu Financial for me. Their volatile results & lack of public comps make them hard to value, but huge retail demand has boosted their wholesale biz & they're expanding into new markets like options. We could see $5 EPS and a $40 stock this year. cc @Dougielarge
Followed! Does this business have blow-up risk? If I remember correctly, they bought Knight Capital's market maker business which blew up in 2012?
There is indeed blow-up risk, but I put the odds of an extreme event like that happening again at very low. Part of the DD process for companies like this is asking the question "how well do I trust management to prioritize operational excellence given the potential risks?"
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