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Hide Not Slide
@HideNotSlide

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Hide Not Slide

@HideNotSlide

Helping investors become smarter & more informed about exchanges.

LOST IN THE CITADEL SECURITIES
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    1. Frederik‏ @NeckarValue Apr 19
      Replying to @HideNotSlide

      Love it! Can you give us a sense of the history of these businesses as public companies and what it means for the monetization of data?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide Apr 19
      Replying to @NeckarValue

      Good question. Pre-early 2000s, exchanges were owned by their largest customers (banks, brokers, big traders). When exchanges demutualized & became public companies from 2002 - 2006ish, they now needed to satisfy public shareholders with consistent growth.

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
    3. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide Apr 19
      Replying to @HideNotSlide @NeckarValue

      This pressure made the industry start to look for revenue streams that analysts could forecast & value better (stable, consistent, recurring in nature). Now exchanges with exposure to indices & other data services are rewarded with higher multiples as a result.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    4. Frederik‏ @NeckarValue Apr 19
      Replying to @HideNotSlide

      So similar to $V, $MA one-time demutualization plays? Who are the key players shaping that landscape? How do you weigh importance of the data business vs. attractiveness of the markets they're in?

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide Apr 19
      Replying to @NeckarValue

      There are different ways to think about both pieces (data & transaction revenue). Within data, products that are connected to secular trends with long runways get more love (ie ESG data, passive index products) & ones with limited TAM growth get shunned (ie equity market data).

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    6. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide Apr 19
      Replying to @HideNotSlide @NeckarValue

      On the transaction side, exchanges have exposure to different markets & their performance will mirror activity in those markets. For example, $CME has been outperforming recently bc their #1 product is interest rates, which see higher volumes when inflation is in focus.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    7. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide Apr 19
      Replying to @HideNotSlide @NeckarValue

      Here's a helpful chart showing a breakdown of the top exchanges & their underlying assets:pic.twitter.com/i3PBwxQCwj

      1 reply 1 retweet 18 likes
    8. Frederik‏ @NeckarValue Apr 19
      Replying to @HideNotSlide

      ICE is interesting with its breadth of products. I read that CEO Jeffrey Sprecher once bid for Ebay. What do you make of him and his acquisition strategy?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide Apr 19
      Replying to @NeckarValue

      Sprecher is arguably the industry's most successful deal maker. He turned a small power exchange into a global behemoth largely via M&A, whether it be futures, the NYSE, market data or mortgages. His deals have fit into two buckets: analog-to-digital conversion & platforms.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    10. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide Apr 19
      Replying to @HideNotSlide @NeckarValue

      The Ebay rumor fits into the idea of an exchange's "platform" - once the core infrastructure is built, adding new things to the platform is easier & comes w/synergies. Ebay is a marketplace platform just like ICE, which is where the idea of a combination might've come from.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide Apr 19
      Replying to @HideNotSlide @NeckarValue

      The most recent example of an "analog-to-digital" acquisition strategy was Ellie Mae. ICE argues the mortgage origination process is outdated & inefficient, and there's money to be made in converting it into an electronic business.

      1:51 PM - 19 Apr 2021
      • 2 Likes
      • Midwestern Hedgie Luis  Colunga
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide Apr 19
          Replying to @HideNotSlide @NeckarValue

          @MarcRuby did a great writeup on ICE's history a few months back for those interested:https://www.netinterest.co/p/plumbing-the-worlds-markets-the-story …

          1 reply 2 retweets 16 likes
        3. Frederik‏ @NeckarValue Apr 19
          Replying to @HideNotSlide @MarcRuby

          Awesome, I look forward to reading. There's a perception that exchanges can serve as inflation hedges. How do you think about that?

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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