I spent a number of years on Wall Street in close proximity to exchanges, where I witnessed first hand how much power they control & how attractive they are as an asset class. Many are unaware how much of the financial system relies heavily on just a few exchange companies.
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Replying to @HideNotSlide @NeckarValue
As an investor I view exchanges as: A cheap call option on surprise volatility Counter-cyclical, asset-light financial toll-roads Clear winners of the global "analog-to-digital" transition I've been a happy owner of exchange stocks for many years now.
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Replying to @HideNotSlide
In your substack (which we'll link later) you call exchanges the "new financial kings." What makes them great businesses? What are they key metrics to comp them?
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Replying to @NeckarValue
Exchanges are the new kings of finance bc they're picking up what banks dropped after GFC regs forced them to de-risk & surrender valuable business. For example, MarketAxess & Tradeweb both are taking the bond market away from bank dealers via electronic trading platforms.
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Replying to @HideNotSlide @NeckarValue
A key metric to compare exchanges to each other is the size of their market data businesses. Exchange transaction revenue can be cyclical & volatile, but market data is a recurring, stable revenue stream that allows exchanges to put up consistent growth.
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Replying to @HideNotSlide @NeckarValue
Here's a table with all the exchanges & market data companies I follow:pic.twitter.com/9ir6EUPdk2
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Replying to @HideNotSlide
Love it! Can you give us a sense of the history of these businesses as public companies and what it means for the monetization of data?
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Replying to @NeckarValue
Good question. Pre-early 2000s, exchanges were owned by their largest customers (banks, brokers, big traders). When exchanges demutualized & became public companies from 2002 - 2006ish, they now needed to satisfy public shareholders with consistent growth.
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Replying to @HideNotSlide @NeckarValue
This pressure made the industry start to look for revenue streams that analysts could forecast & value better (stable, consistent, recurring in nature). Now exchanges with exposure to indices & other data services are rewarded with higher multiples as a result.
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Replying to @HideNotSlide
So similar to
$V,$MA one-time demutualization plays? Who are the key players shaping that landscape? How do you weigh importance of the data business vs. attractiveness of the markets they're in?1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
There are different ways to think about both pieces (data & transaction revenue). Within data, products that are connected to secular trends with long runways get more love (ie ESG data, passive index products) & ones with limited TAM growth get shunned (ie equity market data).
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Replying to @HideNotSlide @NeckarValue
On the transaction side, exchanges have exposure to different markets & their performance will mirror activity in those markets. For example,
$CME has been outperforming recently bc their #1 product is interest rates, which see higher volumes when inflation is in focus.1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes -
Replying to @HideNotSlide @NeckarValue
Here's a helpful chart showing a breakdown of the top exchanges & their underlying assets:pic.twitter.com/i3PBwxQCwj
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