Yep conditions are better now than 6 months ago - steeper yield curve etc but the main catalyst for 2013 cycle/ outperformance on volumes was Basel 3 capital/Dodd Frank/futurisation - preferential treatment of futures vs swaps in USD, expanding client base.
In November 2020 CME management nailed the shift in narrative towards reflation during an investor conference. Since then: S&P 500 +12% CME +24%pic.twitter.com/nTfSofvBB0
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Yep but CME has- across the board- a ton more products in different asset classes now than they ever had in 2013. Hopefully that will help!
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It’s a serious risk but one I put at a low probability. Exchanges & trading firms have pulled out all the stops to lobby against an FTT and its been enough to hold it off in the past.
End of conversation
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