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@HideNotSlide

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@HideNotSlide

Helping investors become smarter & more informed about exchanges.

LOST IN THE CITADEL SECURITIES
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    1. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide Feb 8

      I pulled the trigger this morning and sold my $CBOE position to buy Tradeweb $TW. An explanation of my decisions below:

      4 replies 0 retweets 23 likes
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    2. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide Feb 8

      First a level-set on what both companies do. CBOE is an exchange focused on Options & volatility futures in the US and Europe. Tradeweb is a fixed income trading platform with expertise in Treasuries, mortgages, swaps, and corporate bonds.pic.twitter.com/4UP58eAae1

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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    3. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide Feb 8

      Hide Not Slide Retweeted Hide Not Slide

      I had purchased CBOE in mid-2020 at ~$85 on the thesis that VIX & Index Options activity would recover as vol normalized, with Europe derivatives success as longer-term upside. It was a value/macro play more than a bet on management or CBOE's strategy.https://twitter.com/HideNotSlide/status/1290318920038129664?s=20 …

      Hide Not Slide added,

      Hide Not Slide @HideNotSlide
      Breaking News - I’ve started to nibble at CBOE 🤫 I’ve been notably bearish on the name for the last ~4 months – I’ll lay out the reason for my pivot from bear to cautious bull below.
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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    4. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide Feb 8

      CBOE's recent earnings disappointed me. While Index Options & futures are slowly recovering, its equities business is suffering from pricing & market share pressure from off-exchange trading & startups like MEMX. Higher volumes don't matter if they don't translate to earnings.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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    5. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide Feb 8

      Additionally, expenses are expected to jump +30% in 2021 as recent M&A doesn't come with synergies & their European derivatives buildout requires more investment. That expense jump is quite a lot to stomach, and ROI on this spend isn't clear to me. https://frontmonth.substack.com/p/cboe-q4-2020-earnings-review …pic.twitter.com/XSWERZjzez

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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    6. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide Feb 8

      Why $TW instead? Their biz is booming even in a low rate environment, which Q4 earnings validated. New technologies are directly translating into happy clients & more market share. Treasuries - streams, eSpeed Mortgages - spec pool trading Corporate bonds - portfolio tradingpic.twitter.com/q0E3Oz7lBP

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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    7. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide Feb 8

      I'm willing to pay a premium for a higher quality business with investments that are paying off *today*, rather than a discount for a promise that investments *may* payoff in the future with little to back this up right now. Open to questons/feedback/criticism if any!

      7 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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    8. Austin Stearns‏ @aheiser31 Feb 8
      Replying to @HideNotSlide

      Love it amigo. Curious why you chose TW over MKTX? Valuation perhaps?

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide Feb 8
      Replying to @aheiser31

      I would say yes, valuation despite very similar selling points. MarketAxess is owning one market & can sell this story to investors easily, hence more of a premium. Tradeweb has more than one market to manage which makes it more complex/harder to predict.

      11:54 AM - 8 Feb 2021
      • 2 Likes
      • XLFstocks Austin Stearns
      0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes

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