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Prediction: Ending payment for order flow will be sucked into the ESG zeitgeist. BlackRock & Vanguard will push brokers to end it as part of "improving market structure" for brokers to be included in ESG funds. Millennials & governments will cheer the move.

I'll take the other side of this. If they remove short sellers from the environment the costs are going to go up drastically. Their business model is entirely that. I don't think you really thought through this. Their fees will go up. Goodbye low cost index fund if u are correct.

I agree that the classic business model of the brokers is being crushed and investors will pay for it somehow whether they know it or not. I'm not saying the "end PFOF" push is a good thing, it's just a target of Wall Street populism at the moment.

I kind of disagree, to the extent that the classic revenue model for brokers is "making net interest income on cash management accounts" it hasn't really changed with or without PFOF. Of course commissions are gone but it arguably makes the main pillar stronger.

dont some brokers already rebate all pfof as price improvement?

I think the market makers do that but yeah, both citadel and virtu frequently cite this as a reason why they are good for retail