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HideNotSlide's profile
Hide Not Slide
Hide Not Slide
Hide Not Slide
@HideNotSlide

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Hide Not Slide

@HideNotSlide

Helping investors become smarter & more informed about exchanges.

LOST IN THE CITADEL SECURITIES
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Joined December 2014

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    1. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide 9 Dec 2020

      2020 has been a wild year for exchange M&A. More than $80 billion of exchange deals have been announced or closed this year. 2021 holds just as much promise for consolidation. A thread on my 2021 exchange M&A predictions:

      2 replies 2 retweets 9 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide 9 Dec 2020

      First, the playing field. Potential M&A targets & acquirers in 2021: TMX ($6B market cap) CBOE ($10B) FactSet ($13B) MSCI ($35B) MarketAxess ($21B) Bloomberg (~$75B) Deutsche Borse ($30B)

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Show this thread
    3. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide 9 Dec 2020

      There are two types of exchange M&A - bolt on deals and transformative deals. Bolt on deals are smaller buys to add features to an existing platform. Transformative deals upend industry dynamics and a company's narrative.pic.twitter.com/XiOQlHi6P3

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Show this thread
    4. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide 9 Dec 2020

      The market likes transformative deals when exchanges *diversify* - combining high margin transaction businesses with recurring subscription revenues. "Vertical integration" is also smiled upon - an exchange buying data distribution firms as an example.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Show this thread
    5. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide 9 Dec 2020

      CBOE and FactSet stick out as likely M&A targets. Both are small enough to buy. Both are "one dimensional" - Mostly transaction or mostly subscription businesses. Both are un-loved because of their one-dimensionality.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide 9 Dec 2020

      I think MSCI & Moody's could combine in the future. Two of their biggest competitors just merged in S&P & IHS, pairing ratings & analytics with a powerful index business. What's to prevent a merger to take them on?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Show this thread
    7. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide 9 Dec 2020

      I could also see Deutsche Borse buying CBOE. DB1 has tried to get in on US equities in the past a-la failed NYSE bids, and CBOE's planned European expansion could be causing them to sweat. Only barrier would be anti-trust.

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      Show this thread
      Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide 9 Dec 2020

      What am I missing? Any other deals likely? Will dive into more detail in an upcoming Front Month post.https://frontmonth.substack.com/ 

      10:42 AM - 9 Dec 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Know Nothing
      4 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        1. Austin Stearns‏ @aheiser31 9 Dec 2020
          Replying to @HideNotSlide

          Thoughts on MKTX taking out TW?

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        2. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide 9 Dec 2020
          Replying to @aheiser31

          I think it would be unlikely. Tradeweb is majority owned by Refinitiv, so MarketAxess would need to convince LSE to sell when they just bought it. I also don't think it would pass regulatory as they're the top two platforms in electronic bond trading.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
          3. End of conversation
        2. New conversation
        1. Jan Fichtner‏ @fichtner_jan 9 Dec 2020
          Replying to @HideNotSlide

          What % of CBOE revenues come from VIX? They depend on the licensing agreement with S&P DJI here, right? Seems like a risk for any buyer. MSCI could buy FactSet. Not an exchange but DB1 could buy SimCorp for ~€5bn, the maximum they can afford.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        2. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide 9 Dec 2020
          Replying to @fichtner_jan

          ~10% of CBOE's revenue is Futures, 99% of which is from the VIX. SPX Options are the other piece which is much bigger (~30%ish).

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Show replies
        3. New conversation
        1. Know Nothing‏ @i_know_n0thing 9 Dec 2020
          Replying to @HideNotSlide

          Do you know of any good overviews of the LSE/Refinitiv merger in advance of its closing?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        2. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide 9 Dec 2020
          Replying to @i_know_n0thing

          Hide Not Slide Retweeted Hide Not Slide

          I don't know of any pieces out there that go into deep detail other than news articles covering the deal. I may put something together in the future but below is a start:https://twitter.com/HideNotSlide/status/1319728246670360577?s=20 …

          Hide Not Slide added,

          Hide Not Slide @HideNotSlide
          LSE's purchase of Refinitiv is set to close in early 2021. The more I research the two companies, the more i'm convinced this deal is a global game-changer in the exchange & data business. A thread to explain: pic.twitter.com/dPAktVvg7l
          Show this thread
          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
          3. End of conversation
        4. New conversation
        1. edward stokes‏ @edsstokes 10 Dec 2020
          Replying to @HideNotSlide

          Not gonna happen but bloomberg reverse listing into ICE with sprecher as ceo of both would be my compounderbro neversell fantasy

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        2. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide 10 Dec 2020
          Replying to @edsstokes

          Hey, a guy can dream!

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
          3. End of conversation

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