What exactly is the bull case for Treasuries?
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Replying to @aaronvalue
Why would USTs longterm end up different that bunds and jgbs and gilts? Might be a fine shortterm short for reasons beyond me, but 30yr will be lower in two years, I'd be happy to side bet with you for fun. Read lacy hunt/van hoisington opposite pov and recently on inflation risk
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Replying to @edsstokes
I’m not really sure I can argue with you. I’m only using as it a hedge. The party in the market makes a hard stop if the government for some reason loses control of long term interest rates
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Replying to @aaronvalue
certainly looks like a nice trade/hedge so far. CME holder here would love for you to be right.
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Replying to @edsstokes
Interesting to think of
$CME as a hedge if interest rates blow out. Do you have anything written or can direct me to read more?1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @aaronvalue
That's happening! And I thought it was pretty cheap even if rates vol stayed depressed.
@HideNotSlide writes very well about cme and the industry. I'll send you my brief thinking and expectations this weekend2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
Thanks for the shoutout - I'll leave the below here as it summarizes $CME's post earnings position.
If rates go up traders have to manage more interest rate risk using futures, which benefits $CME's largest products (40% ish of their revenue)https://frontmonth.substack.com/p/making-sense-of-the-exchange-earnings …
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