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When asked whether rates volumes have bottomed, $CME's Sean Tully compared today's recovery to 2013 vs. 2008:
- Unemployment down to ~6.9%, same level in 2013
- Fed balance sheet expanded same amount bw '08 & '13
- S&P surpassed '08 high in 2013
Conveniently, that coincides with the time when $CME started crushing the S&P...pic.twitter.com/r9CtQffHbp
Were there acquisitions in those years or was growth all organic for $CME. I can't see how returns can be as large given the market cap today.
The NEX deal was in 2018, so a lot of outperformance had already happened. CME can snap back pretty quickly if the yield curve perks up again, but to your point I'm unsure if/when the Fed will let that happen again...
yeah but Fed was raising rates through a lot of that time period.
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