Hide Not Slide

The top 5 reasons futures contracts succeed: 1. A commercial need to hedge risk 2. A deep pool of speculators 3. Goldilocks regulation 4. Competition 5. Volatility

1 - Successful markets are built around reducing price risk. Groups like farmers, banks, oil drillers & airlines need to lock in input costs to do business profitably. Futures solve this. Before a market flourishes, there needs to be a non-speculative use case for the asset.

2 - Contrary to popular belief, markets NEED a deep pool of speculators. They take the other side of the commercial's trade, and are paid for offsetting price risk related to real business activity. Markets die without speculation.

3 - Regulators have huge influence over a market's success. It could be deregulation - loosening rules allowing markets to form. Or more regulation - requiring banks or businesses to use compliant exchanges to take prudent risk.

4 - Competition breeds innovation. If incumbent exchanges aren't challenged there's less of a need to listen to the needs of a market. New technology & lower prices bred through competition help traders and exchanges in the long run.

5 - In order for there to be price risk worth hedging, an asset needs to be volatile. If gold prices don't move, no one will trade it. If a stock doesn't move, no one will trade it. If oil prices don't move, no one will trade it. If yields don't move, no one will trade it.

Examples of events that bring about new futures markets: The creation of Bitcoin 1990s natural gas deregulation The US moving off the gold standard 1880s rise of Chicago as a grain terminal