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There's a K-shaped recovery going on in the exchange space. Those exposed to ESG, passive investing, & rising work from home demand are winning. Those exposed to interest rate trading or unhealthy market volatility are losing.pic.twitter.com/RIEtnuc0Bl
Deutsche Boerse is hurting from low rates, but also from the 'CBOE problem' - its VSTOXX index (VIX of Europe) blew up in March and has been quiet since:pic.twitter.com/TIvJHHwXpa
The word "TAM" came up quite a bit across many exchange earnings calls this quarter. ESG TAM China TAM Swaps TAM Passive TAM Mortgage TAM Corporate Bond TAMpic.twitter.com/xVoayTFBLC
Ratings agencies ( $SPGI, $MCO ) played catch-up all year with guidance as debt issuance blew the doors off previous records.
2021 forecasts don't look to shabby either:pic.twitter.com/wnIUvczGU2
Cash equity volumes are highly correlated to the VIX. While it's hard to forecast volatility, the VIX futures term structure gives sentiment clues. 2021 is expected to stay quite volatile:pic.twitter.com/WgBTz0iaRX
I would add another dimension, those groups which are more culturally insular and have eschewed/been ineffective in M&A
Good point - DB1 would fit into that category. M&A pressure should ramp up for them in 2021 if volumes don't improve.
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