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Helping investors become smarter & more informed about exchanges.

LOST IN THE CITADEL SECURITIES
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    1. SLC‏ @SLC_Fund 14 Oct 2020

      1/x Bank Summary Banks are past peak reserve builds and have started to release reserves as the economic base case is improving. Deposit’s / consumer currently strong due to the stimulus, but this is expected to revert into higher charge offs & delinquencies in early/mid 2021.pic.twitter.com/eyYTAppVCY

      1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
      Show this thread
    2. SLC‏ @SLC_Fund 14 Oct 2020

      2/x Support: Bank balance sheets are well prepared (maybe over prepared) for upcoming economic headwinds. Rates are low and will remain low until 2022-2023 which will support risk assets. Liquidity is abundant, but weak NII trajectory remains unchanged with big banks < ~2% NIM's

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Show this thread
    3. SLC‏ @SLC_Fund 14 Oct 2020

      3/x Going forward: Banks either need to boost NII via loan growth, hope the yield curve steepens, or continue to improve their non-interest income mix. Capital market performance sustainability is in question and the rise of SPAC’s and direct listings are a headwind to IB.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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    4. SLC‏ @SLC_Fund 14 Oct 2020

      4/x Catalysts: Buyback resumption (hopefully after Q4) will be a big tailwind (banks built CET1 capital in the quarter, leaving excess capital). Dimon hopes to deploy in 1Q20. Fiscal stimulus could help boost LT rates and drive inflation. Value: Banks are quite cheap...

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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    5. SLC‏ @SLC_Fund 14 Oct 2020

      5/x Strategy: As the world is shifting online $JPM is doubling down on offline, net opening 37 branches in Q3 (highest # of new branches since 2011). The strategy is a mid-term growth driver since JPM received approval to enter 10 new states, putting them in 48.

      3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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    6. SLC‏ @SLC_Fund 14 Oct 2020

      6/x Insight from @gamesblazer06 - Dimon has “no interest in protecting just NII” $JPM is not interested in taking the Fed cash and dumping it into TLT at low rates to marginally improve NII (and get crushed when rates rise). Indicates LT positioning for curve steepening.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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    7. SLC‏ @SLC_Fund 14 Oct 2020

      7/7 Anyone to follow for an opinion on exchanges right now? $CBOE, $ICE, $NDAQ, $CME trading at a 6% forward P/E discount to the S&P (in-line ex-CBOE) vs 5-yr ave premium of 20%. $CBOE is looking cheap at 20% discount to peers. Will VIX products recover as volatility dissipates?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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    8. SLC‏ @SLC_Fund 15 Oct 2020

      @MarcRuby I found your pieces below very informative. Thank you and I love the blog. Any thoughts on CBOE's underperformance or your favorite exchange operator? https://netinterest.substack.com/p/the-new-power-brokers … https://netinterest.substack.com/p/disrupting-bloomberg …https://netinterest.substack.com/p/plumbing-the-worlds-markets-the-story …

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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    9. Marc Rubinstein‏ @MarcRuby 15 Oct 2020
      Replying to @SLC_Fund

      Thanks for your comments. @HideNotSlide is the guy to consult on exchanges.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    10. SLC‏ @SLC_Fund 15 Oct 2020
      Replying to @MarcRuby @HideNotSlide

      Appreciate it, @HideNotSlide looks like the expert. Looking forward to your tweets and newsletter. Any thoughts on my question above? DM me if you prefer. Thanks!

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide 15 Oct 2020
      Replying to @SLC_Fund @MarcRuby

      Thanks for the question. 1) $CBOE has been struggling bc its top 2 markets (VIX & SPX options) have been quiet since March & the market thinks they're not coming back anytime soon. 2) I own $ICE $CME $CBOE & $VIRT and would go with ICE & VIRT for a 12 month horizon right now.

      7:15 AM - 15 Oct 2020
      • 3 Likes
      • Alex Pitti SLC Andy
      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        1. New conversation
        1. SLC‏ @SLC_Fund 15 Oct 2020
          Replying to @HideNotSlide @MarcRuby

          Do you think buyside allocators have given up on VIX products, or will we see a resurgence when vol / uncertainty normalizes? Any opinion in MEMX? Probably missing something, but given the fundamentals and model of the industry, why are exchanges trading in-line with the S&P?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        2. Hide Not Slide‏ @HideNotSlide 15 Oct 2020
          Replying to @SLC_Fund @MarcRuby

          1. I do think VIX OI will rebound when the VIX goes back under 20. 2. Im in wait and see mode - it's hard to break into the equity space (a la IEX) but it's possible. 3. correlation of stocks in general has been rising & exchanges lagged the market in Q3

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
          3. End of conversation

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