Good question - I'll answer in thread form.
Short answer is I expect no meaningful move higher or lower from current levels in '20, but we should see a return to ATHs in '21 and I wouldn't be surprised to see $225 by end of next year.
My reasoning:
https://twitter.com/FinSkirt/status/1295482133406814208 …
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First, I think 2H 2020 will be a "meh" period for CME. Open interest doesn't excite me, and unless the yield curve steepens, rates volume will keep lagging. The market expects ~$7.00 in 2020 EPS, and who am I to argue with a 25x forward multiple w/OI where it is?pic.twitter.com/d7hwyBx6mp
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2021 is where I think forward estimates will creep up over time. 1) Poor volumes now become good comparisons next year. 2) COVID keeps expense control doable. 3) Upside from e-mini options launch, macro volatility.
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It's very difficult to predict volumes & volatility. Expense control, capital return & new products are controllable and CME is delivering. With a solid business humming along, I can buy and can be exposed to surprise volatility events as pure upside.
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I think 30x 2021 EPS of $7.50 is not without reason. EPS moves up on new products and margin improvement. Multiple moves up on capital return & yield curve clarity. $7.50 X 30 = $225.00, ~30% above current prices.
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