FILINGS: As with most stocks, nothing beats the old-fashioned way: reading Ks, Qs, and earnings results in detail. I use Seeking Alpha to read earnings call transcripts (Q&A is most important). Look at results relative to guidance and changes to the forward outlook.
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VOLUMES: The primary drivers of exchange performance are volumes & data growth. The volume piece can be tracked monthly (even daily) via each exchange's website. CME: http://investor.cmegroup.com/volume ICE: https://ir.theice.com/investor-resources/supplemental-information/default.aspx … CBOE: http://www.cboe.com/data/cboe-holdings-monthly-volume-rpc-reports …
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Nasdaq: http://ir.nasdaq.com/financials/volume-statistics … Tradeweb: https://www.tradeweb.com/newsroom/monthly-activity-reports/ … MarketAxess:https://investor.marketaxess.com/volume
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NEWS: It's critical to filter out as much noise as possible when consuming news, and exchanges are no different. I use Finviz's Portfolio tool - create a free account and add stocks to your watchlist. All news from those stocks will show up in a clean, easy to read feed:pic.twitter.com/tcTgZghOY9
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SOCIAL: I follow these accounts to elevate my thinking about exchanges:
@JerryCap@FinSkirt@bizalmanac@BrianGierke@ltabb@kmcpartland@GuFinProf@Foudroyant@staffordphilip@JoeSaluzzi@aosipovich@JustinRBLT@phoenixvalue@RussellRhoads@NoonSixCap9 replies 0 retweets 16 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @HideNotSlide @JerryCap and
Also I am still amazed by the overall lack of understanding about exchange biz models. The vast majority have morphed far beyond trading. Yet the vast majority of PMs are more comfortable buying a bank than an exchange!! Just because it is easier to understand. I call that SCARY!
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Replying to @FinSkirt @HideNotSlide and
I can kind of understand it. They're still regulated much more from a trading than a data perspective. Not many realize out that they've adapted from reliance on hyper-competitive trading businesses to local data monopolies that effectively tax liquidity providers through fees.
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Replying to @Foudroyant @FinSkirt and
Agreed, and it's what makes the LSE-Refinitiv deal EU/Singapore antitrust process so notable. If it passes, if regulators are happy with it, I could see more data/exchange deals.
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Replying to @staffordphilip @Foudroyant and
% agree with you. If Refinitiv crosses the finish line, it is a game changer. ICE’s acquisition of Ellie Mae another notable one. I find it amusing that everyone is b&itching about the price paid & not seeing the long term opportunity of soup to nuts digitization of mortgages.2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes -
Replying to @FinSkirt @Foudroyant and
On ICE: -1st eBay, now Ellie Mae. -March and rates going at zero. -Passive investing in equities. Crossed my mind that they're waving goodbye to buoyant trading for half a decade and are looking outside capital markets.
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The flip side of the ICE coin: - dominant global oil & nat gas futures franchise - stable, consistently growing fixed income data business - M&A story now in action w/mortgages as FinSkirt lays out
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Replying to @HideNotSlide @FinSkirt and
Sprecher calls ICE a distribution channel that needs "must have" content. Trading futures is sticky, clearing CDS is sticky. IDC sticky but lacks dynamism of daily trading vols. Now they're strapping on an ETF hub. Mortgages unusual but Ellie Mae - sticky distribution channel.
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Replying to @staffordphilip @HideNotSlide and
Don’t think mortgages unusual as they fit perfectly in Sprecher’s quest to find asset classes that are big and need to go from, in his words, “analog to digital”. Down the road more trading of mortgages (in diff forms) will become part of the ICE mosaic.
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