This article, fromthenew.world/p/diminishing- BTW, roughly matches my take from the hardware side, although I think you also need to include l the shortage of good data to get AGI odds as low as 5%. In 2017 I would have gone with 12%, though some of the difference is elapsed time.
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Replying to @Simeon_Cps
I’ve been updating my timelines slowly upwards for the last two years.
worldbuild.ai/W-0000000429/
Now feels maybe 20% too optimistic about the rate of change being fast. (Which is to say pessimistic about the world being relatively safe)
