One thought: If 10-20% develop pneumonia, 5% ARDS, and Ro is 2-3 then you’d probably need dozens of cases of secondary spread before enough people present with ARDS to elicit testing absent recent travel history. It could be circulating, but not apparent. Next two weeks critical
Am I the only person surprised that Hong Kong hasn't found more #2019nCoV cases? 14 as of yesterday. After a month. I'd have expected more. Wrong?
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If Ro is 2-3 then the length of time needed to generate enough cases of “unusual” pneumonia to elicit testing absent a recent travel history could take weeks. Depending on when virus was first introduced undetected, the critical time period may be next few weeks. We’ll know soon.
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Nudge nudge, wink of an eye, yep we have just 14...
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That's not Hong Kong.
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SARS outbreak started in Guangzhou a city quite near HK, however this time 2019nCov started in the heart of China- Wuhan, HK in this way can be regarded as a remote city, just like other similar-level cities in China
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Thanks, yes. But Guangdong Prov. has already 725 confirmed cases. I remain surprised HK hasn't found more. I know they're looking aggressively.
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Disagree. Hong Kong have been very forth coming and transparent with data sharing right from the start. Their Centre for Health Protection has been providing daily updates on new cases, how many were tested. https://www.chp.gov.hk/files/pdf/enhanced_sur_pneumonia_wuhan_eng.pdf …
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I agree. I assumed they would find the asymptomatic/mild cases that don't show up in China. But maybe they do not exist at the level we think they do.
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Please don't ever say that again.
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