Seems like few people have noticed that district-level polls and the actual results in special elections suggest Dems are doing better than they supposedly should be according to the national generic Congressional ballot polling. I guess that data screws up people’s models.
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And that’s if you view reliability of the polls as a bit of a constant, which was previously a reasonable assumption. But we have very little comparative data on online polls, & they’re a huge share of what’s currently going in to the averages.
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I think a lot of people have somewhat dismissed the AL special bc of Moore, & have inflated the importance of GA-06, which I think was least predictive for Nov of all the specials we’ve had so far.
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