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HeerJeet's profile
Jeet Heer
Jeet Heer
Jeet Heer
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@HeerJeet

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Jeet HeerVerified account

@HeerJeet

1. Writer, The Nation https://www.thenation.com/authors/jeet-heer/ … 2. email: jeetheer1967 at gmail dot com 3. Twitter essayist 4. Drawn by Joe Ollmann

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Joined June 2012

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    1. Tom Wright‏ @thomaswright08 14 Dec 2017

      Dan says, accurately, that the Trump admin believes Kim Jong Un cannot be deterred & his goal is to use his nuclear capability to reunify the peninsula on his terms. This sounds crazy b/c Kim is not irrational & terrifying b/c it cld excuse preventive war 2/10

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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    2. Tom Wright‏ @thomaswright08 14 Dec 2017

      However, the Q is what does it mean to say Kim is undeterrable. Some analysts believe Kim wants NW for survival only. He is a security maximizer. Others think he believes that they will give him leverage to puruse broader goals. The Trump admin falls into the second camp 3/10

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    3. Tom Wright‏ @thomaswright08 14 Dec 2017

      Let's look at the 2nd camp closely. Kim cld use the nuclear umbrella to engage in conventional aggression against the South, as the DPRK did twice in 2010. He may calculate the west wld never respond for fear of escalation (a version of the stability instability paradox) 4/10

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    4. Tom Wright‏ @thomaswright08 14 Dec 2017

      He may also believe that NW wld allow him to drive a wedge betw the US and South Korea. Maybe not right now but over the 30 or 40 years he expects to rule. He cld initiate a crisis w/ the US & then offer terms that weaken the alliance in exchange for backing down 5/10

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    5. Tom Wright‏ @thomaswright08 14 Dec 2017

      When people say Kim may not be deterrable they often mean this 2nd scenario-- that he will not be a status quo player once he has nukes-- not that he will use them. This is not self evidently wrong & cld be right. 6/10

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    6. Tom Wright‏ @thomaswright08 14 Dec 2017

      The Q then is how to respond to a Kim that wants to use the capability as leverage to further his expansionist goals. Preventive war wld be catastrophic-- it wld cause massive casulaties & even if Kim was removed it cld destroy the US led regional order in East Asia. 7/10

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    7. Tom Wright‏ @thomaswright08 14 Dec 2017

      Minimal deterrence (just deterring use of the nukes) wld also likely fail. There's no provision to respond to conventional agression. The answer imo is a proactive containment policy that seeks to ensure his nukes are useless for anything other than basic survival 8/10

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    8. Tom Wright‏ @thomaswright08 14 Dec 2017

      Based on conversations w/ admin officials I think they basically believe in the 2nd scenario but some of them have been inartful about how they express it, leading people to believe they think Kim is crazy and might use nukes. Also, Trump himself has no idea of the nuances 9/10

      3 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
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    9. Jeet Heer‏Verified account @HeerJeet 14 Dec 2017
      Replying to @thomaswright08

      that's the crucial problem, no?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Tom Wright‏ @thomaswright08 14 Dec 2017
      Replying to @HeerJeet

      I think the crucial problem is what I say in tweet 10. Dan and some others are saying it's that the NSC really believes that Kim is cannot be deterred from using nukes and preventive war is the only option. I don't necessarily believe they think that.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Jeet Heer‏Verified account @HeerJeet 14 Dec 2017
      Replying to @thomaswright08

      Well I think Trump's lack of nuance would be major contributor to mixed signals that provoke war, if it came to that.

      12:37 PM - 14 Dec 2017
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

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