5. This from @willwilkinson was also very prophetic:http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2016/05/29/why-trump-might-win/ …
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Replying to @HeerJeet
6. I had tended to discount such articles because, based on 2008/2012, I assumed Dems would run super competent campaign (GOTV etc).
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Replying to @HeerJeet
7. In Dem primaries I preferred Sanders for political reasons but thought (wrongly) that Clinton had better shot at winning presidency
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Replying to @HeerJeet
That HRC lost does not mean Sanders would have done better. Possible outcomes including large anti-Sanders oppo drop and Bloomberg entry
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Replying to @HeerJeet
I don't find that a compelling argument. HRC didn't unleash the treasure trove of oppo on Sanders, so his polling didn't reflect that info
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Replying to @kwcollins @HeerJeet
But of course Trump and the RNC would have no such reservations. As a result, poll-based arguments don't reflect the likely outcome
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Replying to @kwcollins @HeerJeet
And by oppo, I mean the facts about Sanders summarized in point 2 here http://www.newsweek.com/myths-cost-democrats-presidential-election-521044 …
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Replying to @kwcollins
The oppo on Trump (including "grab them by the pussy" tape) had negligible impact, so likely same on Sanders.
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Replying to @HeerJeet
Furthermore, the oppo on Trump advanced the image people had of him (crude, sexist), while the oppo on Sanders undermines prior image
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Karp's summary of the political science literature is pretty compelling. Last minute dumps don't matter unless people already don't like you
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Replying to @HeerJeet @kwcollins
The Sanders oppo dumps wouldn't be last-minute, though. They'd be a steady drumbeat from summer to November.
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