1. Gut check time. How confident am I that Trump is going to lose?
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Replying to @HeerJeet
2. I'd say I'm pretty confident. Nate Silver puts it at around 80% sure. But aside from polling a few other facts also good (fundraising).
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Replying to @HeerJeet
3. So I'd raise Silver's general 80% Clinton win to 90% (also based on disarray of Trump campaign).
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Replying to @HeerJeet
4. So: pretty confident. But things could always go wrong. Trump could get his act together. Some scandal could hurt Hillary Clinton.
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Replying to @theMamiyaMan @HeerJeet
we just had one and it didn't help him
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Replying to @Luke_Freedman @HeerJeet
No, you just had a run of the mill mass shooting. Not the same thing at all.
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Replying to @theMamiyaMan @HeerJeet
well call it what you want but certainly no definitive evidence to say terror attack would significantly help Trump.
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Quite the reverse based on Orlando.
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En economic crash like 2008 could help him.
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