1. Gut check time. How confident am I that Trump is going to lose?
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A terror attack on US soil would do it.
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we just had one and it didn't help him
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5. In general it's hard to see polls changing unless Trump can really mudsling, as Bush Sr. did in 1988.
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When both candidates are already covered in it, some more isn’t going to be noticeable.
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When a candidate courts white supremacists, I'm uncomfortable with any percentage of a chance that strategy will be legitimized.
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