1. Gut check time. How confident am I that Trump is going to lose?
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If it makes you feel better, today in NC I saw no less than 15 Clinton ads. 0 Trump ads.
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3. So I'd raise Silver's general 80% Clinton win to 90% (also based on disarray of Trump campaign).
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4. So: pretty confident. But things could always go wrong. Trump could get his act together. Some scandal could hurt Hillary Clinton.
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