W/o a ground game, how can anyone even *think* he can win?
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@DemFromCT@EricBoehlert but then an awful candidate can run a really great, tight campaign and still lose badly.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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I'm not a political scientist but in the work I've read they basically assume a competent campaign
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Right. Which Trump is not going to run at all, judging by last 6 weeks.
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Even the fundamentals argument assumes a bare minimum campaign exists... 1/
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like how debates over lead abatement vs. policing tactics explaining crime rate drop assume police department exists.
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@EricBoehlert Do poli-sci people differ on this? I don't think so. Most agree campaigns cancel each other out in normal conditionsThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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The political science argument isn’t that campaigns don’t matter - see John Sides herehttp://washingtonmonthly.com/2013/05/09/more-from-political-scientists-about-effects-of-campaigns/ …
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It’s that well run campaigns will to a great extent cancel each other out. As per Ed Kilgore’s summation of the research …
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“assuming a relatively equivalent deployment of paid resources, none … decisive …other than the closest race.”
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