The next Republican calculus, in numbered tweets. Mute if this format annoys …
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Replying to @davidfrum
1) Post Miami debate (and per RCP polls) Tuesday seems likely to see Trump win Florida (Cruz 3d), and finish 1 or 2 in Ohio (Cruz again 3d)
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Replying to @davidfrum
2) If that result holds, it’s over not only for Rubio and Cruz - but also almost certainly for plans to halt Trump at convention.
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Replying to @davidfrum
3) Anti-Trump GOPers will then have to consider: finding some ballot line for a “true conservative” independent candidacy.
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Replying to @davidfrum
4) Rather as liberals repulsed by Jimmy Carter rallied around John Anderson in 1980…
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Replying to @davidfrum
5) Such a decision presents an agonizing balance of risks to practical Republican politicians
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Replying to @davidfrum
6) Splitting the party can escalate what might otherwise by a 53-47 Hillary Clinton win into a 53-40-7 Hillary Clinton landslide
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Replying to @davidfrum
7) But rallying around Trump invites a turnout collapse among up-market Republicans, who wont vote D, but cant vote Trump.
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Replying to @davidfrum
8) And such a turnout collapse will doom Republican down ballot candidates across the country. Goodbye, Senator Portman.
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@davidfrum Further point: Republicans who survive the bloodbath will be further to the right on average than GOP right now.
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Replying to @HeerJeet
@HeerJeet@davidfrum If any (R) candidate disavows Trump, what's their path to victory? You can't win without (D) and Trump voters.0 replies 0 retweets 0 likesThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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