We are in fifth month of Trump Cruz Carson taking 60% of GOP & 4 weeks from Iowa, but I'm sure establishment candidate is just about to rise
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Replying to @neeratanden
@neeratanden I find the argument that voters decide late pretty persuasive: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/29/upshot/are-primary-polls-finally-predictive-no-but-this-is-when-the-fun-starts.html?ref=topics … ... do you disagree?1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @jonathanchait
@jonathanchait Trump voters are more committed than any other candidate. More than 50%. Late changes happen but often do not.1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @neeratanden
@neeratanden@jonathanchait Why would late deciding necessarily work against Trump? People might hesitate now & go with heart election day1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @HeerJeet
@HeerJeet@neeratanden Point is that months of stable polling /= fixed views. Preferences often shift radically in final weeks.2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
@jonathanchait @neeratanden Fair point! We'll find out in 4 weeks
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