1. Gut check time. Do I think Trump is going to win the GOP nomination? No, I still don't think so but I also think it can't be ruled out.
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Replying to @HeerJeet
2. The main reason to think he won't is institutional: he has on infrastructure in the GOP, no real endorsements, no surrogates.
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Replying to @HeerJeet
3. I've compared Trump with Goldwater, but there's instructive difference. Goldwater insurgency had far more institutional presence in GOP
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Replying to @HeerJeet
4. Goldwater was a figurehead, supported by people who had long being in GOP, knew the rules, had chits they could cash (Cliff White types)
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Replying to @HeerJeet
5. Goldwater stood at the head of a genuine movement. Trump, so far, has only a personality cult. So Trump could be more transitory.
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Replying to @HeerJeet
6. Main reason to think Trump could win is his overwhelming polling lead. But that hides great unknown here: how committed are Trump voters?
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Replying to @HeerJeet
7. Trump is really running a campaign on the cheap, with no real GOTV effort, ad buys. Depending on free publicity of media. Is that enough?
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Replying to @HeerJeet
Jeet Heer Retweeted Andy Lamey
8. Agree
@NateSilver538 has made most cogent arguments for discounting Trump's polling lead.https://twitter.com/amlamey/status/669693449931657216 …Jeet Heer added,
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Replying to @HeerJeet
Jeet Heer Retweeted
9. The GOP elite could use super-delegates to squash Trump. If they do that, they'll tear their party in half. https://twitter.com/jmstwn/status/669693457477177346 …
Jeet Heer added,
This Tweet is unavailable.8 replies 14 retweets 24 likes -
Replying to @HeerJeet
10. Perhaps related to the question of whether Trump can win is: is he a fascist? Again, I have complicated answer: No, but...
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11. I think Trump is best described as not a fascist but fascistic: having some important characteristics of fascism but not fully identical
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Replying to @HeerJeet
12. I mean Trump has the personality cult, the ethnic nationalism, the cultural despair & stabbed-in-the-back mythos but...
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Replying to @HeerJeet
13. But... in a weird way Trump is too scatterbrained & undisciplined to be a real fascist. Can't see him organizing paramilitary groups.
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