6. Again, Trump is almost impossible due to lack of any institutional support in party. But non-Trump field yields no plausible alternative
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Replying to @HeerJeet
7. After 2nd debate, lots of people, myself included, thought Trump might have been strongly damaged. We need to realize we were wrong.
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Replying to @HeerJeet
8. From the polls that have come out, it looks like whatever damage to Trump was a slight drop from peak.
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9. Why did we think Trump would suffer a sharp decline? he was terrible in debate. Challenged by Florina. Clearly out of his depth on policy
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10. Mistake was to think that core Trump voters would think less of him for either misogyny or policy cluelessness. They like these things.
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11. Trump has both a ceiling and a floor. They might be very close. Say between 25% to 30%.
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12. If Trump's floor is 25%, he can stay in for a long time and do damage by preventing a consensus candidate from emerging
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13. One unknown factor is Trump's GOTV -- will Trumpets actually vote or are they just in this for the LOLs?
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14. Other unknown is impact on party. Let's say Jeb wins but Trump has 20% of delegates. Does Trump go to the Convention?
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Replying to @HeerJeet
14. Another unknown: Trump's own agenda. Despite seeming bluntness, he's actually quite opaque. What does he want? What will he settle for?
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15. To think about Trump's agenda best maybe to divide into possible maximum and possible minimum.
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Replying to @HeerJeet
16. Possible maximum is Trump actually wants to President, thinks he's the best for the job and will do everything he can to get there.
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