2. The conventional wisdom makes a lot of sense, it's hard to imagine Trump or Carson winning. More likely longshot is Cruz.
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Replying to @HeerJeet
3. But as against the conventional wisdom, the establishment candidates (Bush, Rubio, Kasich) have yet to establish a Romney like beachhead
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Replying to @HeerJeet
4. And Trump hasn't faded yet. At worst he's been mildly dented and is sinking from his peak of 2 weeks ago.
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Replying to @HeerJeet
5. Further Trump has had a longer surge and time at the top of the polls than any 2012 fringe figure like Gingrich, Santorum or Cain
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Replying to @HeerJeet
6. Again, Trump is almost impossible due to lack of any institutional support in party. But non-Trump field yields no plausible alternative
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Replying to @HeerJeet
7. After 2nd debate, lots of people, myself included, thought Trump might have been strongly damaged. We need to realize we were wrong.
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Replying to @HeerJeet
8. From the polls that have come out, it looks like whatever damage to Trump was a slight drop from peak.
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9. Why did we think Trump would suffer a sharp decline? he was terrible in debate. Challenged by Florina. Clearly out of his depth on policy
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Replying to @HeerJeet
10. Mistake was to think that core Trump voters would think less of him for either misogyny or policy cluelessness. They like these things.
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@charles_gaba Was just about to tweet something similar, as you'll see
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