1. Will Trump get the GOP nomination? Almost certainly not. Will he run as a third party candidate? That's harder to answer.
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Replying to @HeerJeet
2. The main reason to think Trump won't go 3rd party is it requires a level of discipline (to even get on ballot) that he doesn't evince.
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Replying to @HeerJeet
3. One reason to think Trump will go 3rd party is he emphasize from time to time GOP heterodoxy: on single payer, opposition to Iraq war.
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Replying to @HeerJeet
4. A credible Trump 3rd party run would have to siphon some support from Dems as well as GOP. Hence keeps saying he opposed Iraq war.
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Replying to @HeerJeet
5. After the first GOP debate, the party is in a curious place. There is no frontrunner. Trump is polling front-runner but he's indigestible
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Replying to @HeerJeet
6. In 2012, Romney was always the likeliest GOP nominee even when he trailed in polls. He had a pathway to nomination. Not clear this time.
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Replying to @HeerJeet
7. Jeb (or Jeb!) is nominally the Romney of 2016, but more vulnerable than Romney ever was. To start with, his last name is Bush.
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Replying to @HeerJeet
8. Walker & Rubio both seem insubstantial figures, maybe fine as Veeps but not presidential.
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Jeet Heer Retweeted Downpuppy, since 1783
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