1. Will Trump get the GOP nomination? Almost certainly not. Will he run as a third party candidate? That's harder to answer.
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3. One reason to think Trump will go 3rd party is he emphasize from time to time GOP heterodoxy: on single payer, opposition to Iraq war.
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4. A credible Trump 3rd party run would have to siphon some support from Dems as well as GOP. Hence keeps saying he opposed Iraq war.
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