@robertwrighter Russia still has strong position in east Ukraine. Why give up? West has far less leverage than Kerry's tone suggests
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Replying to @TonyKaron
@TonyKaron but trying to take all or part of E Ukraine would be v messy & a possible quagmire. Crimea, in contrast, is tidy.4 replies 1 retweet 0 likes -
Replying to @robertwrighter
@robertwrighter Russia doesn't have to do this by force. My read is that Crimea is the core strategic interest, secured by force...1 reply 1 retweet 0 likes -
Replying to @TonyKaron
@TonyKaron yes--*strategically* (in the military sense) crimea's worth way more than the rest of Ukraine.2 replies 1 retweet 0 likes -
Replying to @robertwrighter
@robertwrighter yeah, won't let that go, but could still win more. Kiev govt on very brittle foundations, US/EU can't do much for it1 reply 1 retweet 0 likes -
Replying to @TonyKaron
@TonyKaron agree our leverage is v limited. that's why i don't get why we're raising the rhetorical stakes.3 replies 2 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @robertwrighter
@robertwrighter@TonyKaron I'd add though that "strategic" value of Crimea for Russia might be drained by longterm cost of invasion.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @robertwrighter
@robertwrighter Invasion of Crimea. Don't you think this will lead to long term alienation or Ukraine & Europe?1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
@robertwrighter In short term, yes. But isn't there huge incentives now for Europe to look for alternative sources of energy?
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