1. A few quick thoughts on the mistakes people make in thinking about the Crimean crisis & Russian foreign policy.
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Replying to @HeerJeet
2. Mistake to think this is Russia flexing its strength. Crimea is actually a display of Russian weakness & a massive blunder.
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Replying to @HeerJeet
3. Until recently, Russia had ally in power in Ukraine. Now they have Ukrainians hostile to them in bulk of country and a rump state-lit.
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Replying to @HeerJeet
4. Rump state-lit in Crimea will only stay in Russian hands through extended military occupation. That's also a cost.
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Replying to @HeerJeet
5. In general, in world where economic power comes from trade, investment and scientific advances, military adventurism not a good idea.
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Replying to @HeerJeet
6. Russia's main relationship in world is not with USA but with EU (especially Germany). They've alienated Europeans big-time.
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Replying to @HeerJeet
7. EU & Germans now have every reason in the world to buy energy elsewhere. Will take time, but this will be crippling to Russia.
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Replying to @HeerJeet
8. Aside from EU, Putin's major recent diplomatic initiative is building BRIC alliance as counter-hegemonic bloc. That's in ruins now.
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Replying to @HeerJeet
9. Leaders of China are not democrats, but they're not fans of adventurism and instability either.
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Replying to @HeerJeet
10. If you have to use a Cold War prism (a mistake but for sake of argument) think of 1956, 1968, 1979: all major Soviet losses.
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11. Everytime the USSR invaded a neighbor, it suffered loss on world stage: losing not just fellow travelers & advocates for engagement.
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Replying to @HeerJeet
12. Putin has a 19th century mindset on foreign policy but we don't have to be like him. In 21st century terms, he's made a huge blunder.
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