The more I read about what it would take to repel a full Chinese attack on Taiwan more it seems questionable whether the U.S. has the gargantuan material resources necessary to do such a thing. This is separate from political will to take a large number of casualties.
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It’s possible that China is far weaker than believed in the way that Russia has been revealed but it seems doubtful. Repelling an attack on Taiwan would probably be the only thing preventing further attacks against Vietnam, Philippines et al.
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If China establishes hegemony over Asia it will become to Eurasia what the United States is to the Americas; except far bigger and more powerful on scale. Actually pivoting to Asia to try and prevent such a thing would require rapid and sweeping changes in U.S. defense posture.
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Can set aside the morality or human rights arguments (usually debatable anyways) it would be a serious economic and political shock if the U.S. were summarily replaced by China in this way and then subsequently hard to imagine China ever being dethroned once in place.
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China is not without internal fissures and contradictions.
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