I'm reluctant to fully agree with @EliotACohen's argument here. We are right to be cautious because of the US's recent history of over-optimism and self-delusion, of which Cohen himself has often been part. However, I think he is definitely on to ...https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/ukraine-is-winning-war-russia/627121/ …
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Think part of the dynamic is press focuses for good reasons on these horrific attacks on civilians. But those are ramping up precisely because the RU military seems unable to make any military progress. Obvs we can't have the myopia of thinking the mil story is only real one.
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Yep. And a wounded Russian military going on a killing spree presents real challenges for Ukrainian government. I think the main big picture thing is Putin's war aims have spectacularly failed.
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Of course, to be fair, "war not going as Putin wanted" is not the same as Ukraine is winning. (But I am hopeful)
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Honest question: does he know that?
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Lots of Putin watchers think not -- he doesn't read media on own and has a feedback loop of yes men. But I'm wondering if there aren't ways to break through that -- as with, say, Macron or Bennett talking to him.
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Both can be true at the same time? The war is going badly for Putin but the Russian advantages are huge and probably decisive
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