2. War dead numbers of course are always hard to get a firm handle on during conflict. But there are other signs Putin's war going badly. Turkish reports of negotiations indicate a scaled back agenda. And recent attempts to mobilize opinion indicate fear of anti-war sentiment
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3. Even the shift in propaganda rational (from initial denazification rhetoric to biolabs) can be read as a sign of desperation, as also with Putin's speech last week lashing out against elite traitors disloyal to Russia.
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4. I've tried to be cautious because as in any war there is a lot of propaganda from many sides, and there's the risk of wishcasting & motivated reasoning (wanting Russian army to lose makes one naturally overemphasize evidence indicating they are faring poorly)
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5. But even controlling for wishcasting and even acknowledging that a wound Russian army can still do tremendous damage, the war isn't going as Putin hoped. I talk about this with the estimable
@lieven_anatolhttps://jeetheer.substack.com/p/podcast-putins-failed-mission?r=bh54&s=w&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email …Show this thread
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Here is the trick, though: this "almost 10,000" KIA almost certainly doesn't include the so-called SOBR (military police) losses, which Ukrainians estimate at around 2,500, and it also doesn't include Vagner Private Company group losses, which are estimated at ~4,500 It's brutal
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ah, almost forgot: from 700 to 1,000 Russian soldiers are also prisoners of war in Ukrainepic.twitter.com/YEAZ8z1P0E
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Saluti, the unroll you asked for: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1505977636362895371.html … Talk to you soon.
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Keep your metaphors straight, Jeet! This is Spanish civil war II.! This is not the kidnap-murder of the Duc d’Enghien # II!
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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But how many had comorbidities?
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