As long as we're playing historical analogies, can I suggest the closest (but imperfect) one is Hungary in 1956?
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Absolutely. NATO wasn't going to go to war with the USSR over Hungary, much as its members would have been happy about states breaking away from the Soviet orbit.
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Also, Khrushchev didn't really have a clear game plan for how things would turn out, and the net results, at least internationally, were quite bad.
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