Thing with constantly crying imminent invasion is that when it doesn't materialize, you lose credibility. There's a well known children's story that illustrates the point.
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I would like advocates of alarmism as a policy to acknowledge that it comes with costs: it actual helps destabalize Ukrainian society (by sowing fear & uncertainty), makes accidental war due to mixed signalling marginally more likely, and undermines credibility with public.
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Don't think policy, think information warfare
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It’s been effective so far
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Effective at what?
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The wrongest people in media describing why all their wrong reporting was actually part of US strategy is not great
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It’s not “alarmism” so much as it is threat identification and message spiking. The Kremlin wants to raise and lower the temperature at will and mask to some degree when it is actually going to use force. The Biden administration is spoiling both efforts in one shot.
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Exactly. First of all, the Ukrainian president has an major interest in keeping fear low. Second, the US, UK, and others aren't just keeping alarms high, they are in real time reading off Putin's plans forcing him to change them to make it look like alarmism.
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They're building pontoon bridges in the Chernobyl exclusion zone (i.e., immediate north of Kiev). If the alarmism isn't warranted, it's *Team Russia*'s strategy to generate it.https://twitter.com/vorobyov/status/1493941107104882688 …
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But wouldn’t Ukraine and the US have slightly different cost/benefit perspectives? The US seems mainly focused on discouraging invasion regardless of economic cost to Ukraine, and Ukraine’s take is obviously a little more focused on the day to day economic harm of that strategy.
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