Another small sign of tankie ideas slipping into the mainstream socialist movement in America:https://twitter.com/Mulboyne/status/1469668307192381449 …
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Suppose it's 0.1%. is it then not worth considering as a hypothetical in order to establish someone's theory of just war? Should our moral principles only be explored using highly likely war scenarios?
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Amphibious invasions are impossible against great powers in 2021. Someone has been watching too much Saving Private Ryan.
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Depends how you define “invade”
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That's what war is.
End of conversation
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The two main islands with the bulk of the Japanese population? I’d say under 1%. Japanese territory, including some non-disputed territory with small numbers of Japanese pop in next 20 years? I’d say it’s low but not crazy low, probably 20-25% chance.
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How will you evaluate that number? Why do you think anyone can estimate the probability of future wars with any accuracy? And why do you think that countries should not prepare for catastrophic tail events?
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Assuming you consider the Ryukyu Islands part of Japan, I'd say around 75%. I expect the Third Sino-Japanese war and the Taiwanese War of Independence to happen in my lifetime, with the US allied with Japan and Taiwan.
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It's a thought experiment Jeet
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