People make fun of probabilistic thinking, but it’s so much more useful (and true) than saying “X will definitely happen.” We should all be much less certain about many more things.https://twitter.com/HeerJeet/status/1467139207772659725 …
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This is like the big brain takes that Nate Silver was wrong because his probabilistic model predicted Clinton was more likely than not to beat Trump. People who understand probability critique the model. If you think his logic was wrong, say precisely how.
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Right, like this is a scorable prediction and he has a bad score. He expressed that there was a <1% chance of this happening
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