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HeerJeet's profile
Jeet Heer
Jeet Heer
Jeet Heer
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@HeerJeet

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Jeet HeerVerified account

@HeerJeet

1. Writer, The Nation https://www.thenation.com/authors/jeet-heer/ … 2. email: jeetheer1967 at gmail dot com 3. Twitter essayist 4. Drawn by Joe Ollmann

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Joined June 2012

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    1. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 10 Oct 2021

      The '12 campaign was an exercise in reassembling the Obama coalition: getting a bunch of voters who usually voted D and voted for Obama to vote for him again, despite a mediocre economy. The Shor task is now to *win* votes back.

      2 replies 9 retweets 136 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 10 Oct 2021

      According to data from Pew, Midwestern whites have gone from R+6 to R+14 by party ID from pre-12 campaign to post-20. Nationwide, whites without a degree have gone from R+12 to R+23 over the same period This is a formidable obstacle to achieving '12 results again.

      6 replies 33 retweets 215 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 10 Oct 2021

      2. Popularism does not seem to have any obvious options for *winning* votes back. It is mainly about *defusing* the issues that hurt Democrats. But if you buy my framing that Democrats need to *win* votes back, they need something powerful to lure back now GOP-leaning voters

      12 replies 25 retweets 217 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 10 Oct 2021

      For comparison, think about how Trump *won* these voters. He did not simply 'defuse' Obama' 12 issues. He did not simply raise issue salience. He totally reoriented the GOP toward winning wwc Dems, from trade, immigration, crime, race, China, guns, etchttps://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/30/upshot/how-trumps-campaign-could-redraw-voter-allegiances.html …

      11 replies 28 retweets 176 likes
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    5. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 10 Oct 2021

      This was a huge reorientation from Romney to Trump. It was a deeply traumatic event for the GOP. And I think if Democrats want to undo the last 10 years, that they would probably need to think on that kind of scale--not just saying a few less unpopular things

      6 replies 20 retweets 255 likes
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    6. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 10 Oct 2021

      3. You can't rerun '12 in '24. Most obviously, there are huge changes in the Republican Party--just discussed--that cannot be undone. There were two sides of the 2012 campaign, after all: Obama and Romney. You don't get to fight Romney '12 again.

      7 replies 24 retweets 196 likes
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    7. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 10 Oct 2021

      Less obvious are vast changes on the Democratic side, as well. Obama didn't have to talk much about race in '12 because... it wasn't 2013 yet. Today, there's a large vocal progressive left. It can't simply be undone.

      3 replies 12 retweets 164 likes
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    8. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 10 Oct 2021

      The shift to the left is driven by long-term changes like rising educational attainment and generational replacement. Dems are liberal now. There are new groups and ideas. They'll have to be placated. There may be tactical ways to do it, but making them go away isn't an option

      5 replies 16 retweets 186 likes
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    9. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 10 Oct 2021

      It's worth noting that popularism doesn't actually argue for them to go away. It argues for a filter: subject progressive ideas to a poll-based test, and get rid of the least popular things they advocate. That may be an option for campaigns, but it's not for activists

      6 replies 18 retweets 210 likes
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    10. Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 10 Oct 2021

      I think it's totally reasonable to argue that campaigns shouldn't embrace ideas before they are popular. It is not realistic to argue that activists shouldn't advocate for ideas before they're popular.

      20 replies 63 retweets 485 likes
      Show this thread
      Jeet Heer‏Verified account @HeerJeet 10 Oct 2021
      Replying to @Nate_Cohn

      I actually don't even know what the mechanism for restraining activists would be. Dems are a loose coalition. They can't even control Manchin & Sinema, how can they control outside activists?

      7:25 PM - 10 Oct 2021
      • 34 Likes
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      2 replies 0 retweets 34 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. ResistancenotFutile‏ @borgdefector 10 Oct 2021
          Replying to @HeerJeet @Nate_Cohn

          We’re only a loose coalition because of structural disadvantage.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. ResistancenotFutile‏ @borgdefector 10 Oct 2021
          Replying to @borgdefector @HeerJeet @Nate_Cohn

          If The senate was in any way truly representative Dems would have a significant majority and there would be much more room for outliers.

          0 replies 1 retweet 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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