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HeerJeet's profile
Jeet Heer
Jeet Heer
Jeet Heer
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@HeerJeet

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Jeet HeerVerified account

@HeerJeet

1. Writer, The Nation https://www.thenation.com/authors/jeet-heer/ … 2. email: jeetheer1967 at gmail dot com 3. Twitter essayist 4. Drawn by Joe Ollmann

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Joined June 2012

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    1. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 28 May 2021

      Nate Silver Retweeted Jonathan Chait

      There are a few mechanisms here: 1) Parties usually course-correct after defeats and the GOP is doing the very opposite. It's not clear how well empirical precedents about mean-reversion during the midterms holds up under these conditions.https://twitter.com/jonathanchait/status/1398334174059282433 …

      Nate Silver added,

      Jonathan ChaitVerified account @jonathanchait
      Replying to @NateSilver538
      explain?
      65 replies 98 retweets 1,041 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 28 May 2021

      2) Swing voters tend to elect the out-party in midterms to create a balance of power. If they're convinced that the GOP will not wield its power responsibly or will even use control of Congress to permanently seize power, that calculation changes.

      25 replies 44 retweets 622 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 28 May 2021

      3) Even if swing voters don't care, Democratic base voters are likely to be very motivated by the claim that Democrats must keep control of Congress to prevent the presidency from being stolen in 2024. This may reduce the typical "enthusiasm gap" in midterm voting.

      48 replies 54 retweets 756 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 28 May 2021

      4) After GOP turnout declined in the Georgia runoffs, I wouldn't totally dismiss the idea that a party can sabotage its own turnout when it claims that elections are stolen.

      20 replies 33 retweets 637 likes
      Show this thread
      Jeet Heer‏Verified account @HeerJeet 28 May 2021
      Replying to @NateSilver538

      I also think that the low propensity voters Trump turns out don't show up when Trump is not on the ballot. His support isn't transferable.

      11:14 AM - 28 May 2021
      • 1 Retweet
      • 71 Likes
      • Joseph Godwin boy DKantDance Alexandre ethan mysterious seeds Dante Rondo lucky bastard Aubrey Maturin
      4 replies 1 retweet 71 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Matt Wisnefske - a fungible token.‏ @mwisnefske 28 May 2021
          Replying to @HeerJeet @NateSilver538

          Also, the most reliable midterm voters are higher education/suburban... if that shift holds beyond 2020...

          1 reply 0 retweets 13 likes
        3. Show replies
        1. Jonarific‏ @Jonarific84 28 May 2021
          Replying to @HeerJeet @NateSilver538

          That feels right to me. Interesting choice for Trump. Does he clearly encourage his supporters to vote to help in a future repeat of trying to take the election, or does his ego want the republicans to fail when he's not on the ticket?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Joe Carlin‏ @joe_nca 28 May 2021
          Replying to @HeerJeet @NateSilver538

          Joe Carlin Retweeted Joe Carlin

          I wondered this exact thing.https://twitter.com/joe_nca/status/1398338883784302595?s=20 …

          Joe Carlin added,

          Joe Carlin @joe_nca
          Replying to @NateSilver538
          I'm also wondering about the midterm penalty. Typically, particularly during the Obama years, Republicans had more reliable voters during midterm elections. Now Rs & Ds have swapped less reliable noncollege educated whites and more reliable college educated surburbanites.
          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Jammysod‏ @jammy_sod 28 May 2021
          Replying to @HeerJeet @NateSilver538

          Here’s hoping

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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