Nate asks an epidemiologist - the person he's quote-tweeting - to go on the record about his subjective-probability estimate that Covid was caused by a lab-leak. And he says that other experts consider that explanation reasonably likely. Why is anyone upset with this?https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1397869883585708034 …
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And everyone saying there's "no new evidence" supporting the lab-leak hypothesis is being ridiculous. Joe Biden said yesterday the US intelligence community is divided on the issue, and believes it doesn't have the information to say the natural hypothesis is "more likely."
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That's new evidence! It may not be great evidence, given the IC's track record. But knowing that the US IC, which has access to more info than your average virologist, is unconvinced of the natural hypothesis should shift your priors, even if only slightly.
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I would honestly not trust the IC over virologists -- the IC's evidence is "we say so but can't show you" whereas virologists work with protocols where proof ha to be publicly supplied for claims.
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