excellent priors
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The fact that Larry Summers predicted all three possible outcomes portents that it will somehow be an entirely different fourth option.
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he either left a 1% chance for that, or can’t do math up to 100%. either is fully plausible
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What about the 1 percent that's left?
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18/38 red, 18/38 black, 2/38 green: american economic outlook
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Ask Kudlow- he is reliably 100% wrong.
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I am 60 years old, I'll be 61 in May. Anecdotally I believe things have gotten steadily worse since 1977, and the chances of anything getting better are very very slim. Stay the same: small chance.
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Insignificant digits
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But if we're being precise, what's the other 1%
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1% chance of Godzilla returning and ravaging the coastline..
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