it's not really a swing district anymore, probably. way too many college educated voters.
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Replying to @cunninghamp220 @HeerJeet
I live in her district and I assure you it is very much a swing.
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Replying to @GoGoAliza @HeerJeet
sure it's still technically a swing, and in a red wave she'd probably lose. but her district is exactly the kind of swing district that's been trending towards dems. I don't see the trend stopping anytime soon.
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Katie Porter holds the district because people are excited about her as a politician. Look at CA 48 by comparison - similar demographics, and the first-term dem rep lost his seat to a far right anti-masker because he wasn’t as engaging.
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Katie Porter is definitely a great politician. but her district has 50% college grad. CA-48 only has 42.4%. significant difference.
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it's not incredibly weird. it's actually been an extremely useful way to see where the GOP has lost support over the last 5 years.
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The idea that elections are all about demographics and campaigning/candidates don't matter has hurt the Dems a lot.
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they're not all demographics. but simply calling Katie Porter's district a "swing district" 3 months after biden won with college whites after significant defections from minority voters is dumb.
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Again, the assumption here is that this has nothing to do with candidates and campaigns -- or that turning swing districts to safe districts isn't something you have to work at rather than the ineluctable workings of demographics.
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of course, but don't be obtuse. you think Tom Suozzi is an amazing politician? he's my congressman and whooped his opponent by 12.5 points; much bigger margin than Porter's. same college grad %. the difference? Suozzi's district is significantly whiter.
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