1. I think this is basically right: since 2020 GOP has been unstable coalition of new & marginal Trump voters + bog standard GOP partisans (Paul Ryan types). When both parts of coalition show up, GOP can win. But what if Trump isn't on ballot?https://twitter.com/lionel_trolling/status/1346823677598380034 …
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3. The open question is whether Trumpism requires Trump. Beyond that, what happens when Trump starts fighting with GOP (as is increasingly happening). Georgia is perhaps a harbinger. More thoughts here:https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/winners-losers-georgia-senate/ …
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Cruz and Hawley don't have a 30-year brand behind them. They're just annoying looking guys.
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If the GOP is literally not going to have a platform, then this makes sense. "They have no message" gets thrown around a lot but they actually have no message.
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Trump would have to formally name a successor in order for the cult of personality he’s created to fully embrace them so long as Trump himself is alive. Since he won’t do this we won’t see a real successor until he dies and then it’ll be a Death of Stalin mad scramble.
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Rs really depend on low propensity poor rural voters and working class hispanics to show up for them. Mcconell/Kudlow/Perdue type of corporate agenda of screwing them economically and trying to win by just culture wars or using socialist labels on democrats has its limits.
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Trump spent decades building his brand. It's not a role anyone can just step into.
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Because the marginal Trump voter hates the R establishment, which they never saw Trump as part of. All these fancy R Senators are establishment, even as they try to talk like they're not.
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