Joe Biden was the highest of high-profile Dems, no? Did it hurt him?
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He barely won in every swing state despite running against the most unpopular president since Jimmy Carter and despite the fact that Trump presided over a public-health debacle that’s killed more than 200k Americans.
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Replying to @JamesSurowiecki @ijbailey and
That's a meaningless statement. In a highly polarized period that features rampant vote suppression by the GOP, Biden won several of those key states and flipped two (Arizona and Biden). All by higher margins than Trump's in 2016. So, really, James, try some other argument.
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Replying to @dropoutnation @JamesSurowiecki and
Biden's margin of 154,000 votes is greater than Trump's 10,704 in 2016. Biden's margin of 98,000 votes in Pennsylvania is greater than Trump's 44,292 in 2016. Really, what are you arguing here, James?
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Replying to @dropoutnation @ijbailey and
I’m arguing that Biden’s margin of victory in AZ, NV, WI, MI, and PA was far smaller than it should have been, given whom he was running against.
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Replying to @JamesSurowiecki @dropoutnation and
Really? There's no reason to think beating Trump would have been easy. Incumbent presidents are hard to beat. Trump's celebrity brings out many marginal voters. Fed Reserve easy money + generous stimulus helped him on economy. Covid led to rally behind leader with some voters.
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Replying to @HeerJeet @JamesSurowiecki and
Last time I'll bug you about this, I swear! But how can you possibly concede to these points, which are absolutely right, and *not* understand why this shows that it was crucial to win over moderate and suburban whites to ultimately prevail?
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Replying to @ThePlumLineGS @JamesSurowiecki and
I think Biden followed one of the few plausible strategies that could have defeated Trump. There might have been other strategies, but Biden's worked. But it also came at a cost, as seen by down ballot results.
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Replying to @HeerJeet @JamesSurowiecki and
Okay. If you think this was one of the few paths but w/costs, that's reasonable. I would (genuinely) like to understand what role the Biden strategy played in downballot losses. My guess is it's more structural: Trumpy turnout lifted Rs who held a few swing voters Trump didn't.
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Replying to @ThePlumLineGS @HeerJeet and
I still don't understand how Biden's strategy contributed to downballot losses, given the general increase in Dem turnout. How would a different strategy have helped swing-district Democrats win?
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One of Biden's big argument -- used to win over Never Trump Republicans -- is that problem is only Trump, not GOP & once Trump is gone, GOP will be a normal party. That's a terrific argument for voting for Biden & down ballot GOP.
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Replying to @HeerJeet @ThePlumLineGS and
As everyone's been saying to me, what's the evidence that that had any impact at all on whom voters voted for?
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Replying to @JamesSurowiecki @ThePlumLineGS and
The election results where Biden outperformed down ballot Dems!
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