it's pretty clear that the difference between the 2016 & 2020 election outcome is most likely because enough well-to-do white people changed their votes from non-Dem in 2016 to Biden in 2020.
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It is not the diversity that matters as much. It is the education level.
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Yes and Biden got 15 million more votes than HRC. That's a whole lot of well-to-do white folks. What about the big increase in young voters, including some who were under 18 in 2016?
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Why do you assume young voters can't be well off?
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Is this is an explanation for the marginal gains, this would logically mean that non white suburbanites were significantly less likely to support Hillary in 2016 than they were Biden in 2020, no?
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Uh, I am a Millennial and I am almost 40. My kid will graduate high-school in 2022... Millennials aren't kids. We've been in the workforce 20 years.
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1/2 That's exactly what's happening, the burbs are growing in population, and that population is getting more diverse, but they gotta push their own narrative about "persuadable white moderates". Take a piece of paper and a pen and go over places like Cobb, Denton, Collin,
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Waukesha, and you will see Biden's improvement cannot be explained simply by giving him 2016 vote shifters, but is the result of massive turnout differentials. 2/2
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In fact, we need much more analysis re race/income suburban breakdown. Eg, this piece discusses Newton County, GA, a key inner metro Atlanta suburb, going by 11% for Biden, but it’s majority minority:https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/11/30/georgia-election-biden-trump/?arc404=true …
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