The other place we need some disaggregation is "rural vote." How much are changes from traditional rural voters, how much from rise of exurbia & influx of rich carpetbaggers?
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Or just young people replacing dying older ones
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And decompose how much top-level shift is from changes in turnout vs changes in preference
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I had thought Nate silver did something on this. I saw some analysis that suggested that Biden’s success in Georgia, for example, is strongly linked to D gains in suburbs
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This is really important. Dems will probably learn the wrong lesson, because they always do, and think they win the suburbs by being more moderate.
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This is a good point but there is only one conclusion that Democrats want to promote.
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I'm not sure republican conversions is an obvious factor. I live in an 80% Trump County and met not one person who voted Trump in 2016 switch in 2020. I'd like to see data.
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I don't think Chester County, PA going from a narrow Romney win in 2012 to +9.4 for HRC to +17 for Biden is primarily a result of greater ethnic diversity. It' still mostly white and the wealthiest county in PA. https://www.chesco.org/DocumentCenter/View/60641/2019-ACS-Chester-County-at-a-Glance_Oct-2020 …https://triblive.com/news/pennsylvania/report-this-is-pennsylvanias-wealthiest-county/ …
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