This is a smart thread. I agree that the dominant fact is that Trump was at heart of election. Whatever misgivings one might have about Biden's strategy, he did construct one of the few possible coalitions that could defeat Trump.https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1327623039996006401 …
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Is it possible that another coalition, one that tried to fight Trump's advantage among non-college voters head on, could also have won? I think so but Democratic party and primary voters didn't want to risk it. And given threat of Trump, it's hard to blame them for avoiding risk
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Going forward, we have to think about the conditions that fuelled Trump's rise. In 2 elections 46% and 47% of population supported an anti-system candidate. That would suggest there is a problem with the system.
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One of the unknowns of the election, which we're going to need a lot more research to figure out, is how Covid played out. Trump's bungling hurt him but uncertainty of stimulus meant that many ordinary people were forced into "economy vs. covid" frame, which helped Trump.
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Replying to @HeerJeet
This last point is pretty key I think. He created a hunger games framework in months just before the election. And with no relief, many agreed that the economy comes first. Or to put it differently, given no other option, of course they did. Texas borderlands seems case of this.
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Yeah, I think that's what happened. A non-Trump, post-Covid election will be a very different terrain.
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