This is a smart thread. I agree that the dominant fact is that Trump was at heart of election. Whatever misgivings one might have about Biden's strategy, he did construct one of the few possible coalitions that could defeat Trump.https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1327623039996006401 …
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We can definitely say it didn't hurt him with the fox new epistemological universe, maybe with marginal voters that straddle that and the real world but theres not a lot of those
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Also, it’d be interesting to know how much the CARES Act helped him out, given some anecdotal post-election exit interviews
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Also worth considering how hard it was for dems, as the non-incumbents (writ large) to overcome that framing with “we’ll defeat COVID and pay you to make up for any $ damage inflicted”
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Was the messaging bad? People just not believe it? Trump suck up all the oxygen? GOP incumbency benefit from CARES muddy the waters? Hidden undercurrent of deficit scolds? True opposition to public health measures even with $$?
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Letting the economy tank and then blaming Democrats is a good strategy, because Democrats don't focus their messaging on how their policies are good for the economy.
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I think I read somewhere that some people view covid as a natural disaster instead of an administration’s intentionally bungled response. I blame the media.
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This suggests that Dems totally bungled the stimulus politics. Why were they unable to make the case that we passed a stimulus and GOP is blocking it?
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Part of it is that after they passed their bill they continued to negotiate. Crazy IMO. Pass the bill & keep screaming about Mitch taking it up. You don't need to pre-negotiate before going into conference, by doing that you give him the upper hand by letting him get away with/1
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A very large part of Trump's increase in vote despite his catastrophic failure is that people thought a vote for him was a vote to end shutdowns.
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As you say above : )
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